All eyes are on Pennsylvania as voters go to the polls to cast the first ballots in the Democratic presidential primary in nearly six weeks. News and Maps in the links below. Be sure to check back, as this page will be updated through out the day and night as more news breaks and election results come in.
538: Pennsylvania Scorecard
Two things you should not pay attention to without proper context:
(1) Leaked exit polls
(2) Very early returns
you can pay a little more attention to the early returns by using the scorecard below, which lists the regional results from among five pollsters that provided these breakdowns, plus our regression-based estimate. For example, the polls say to expect about a 10-point margin for Clinton in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) — if there are a substantial number of reutrns in from Allegheny and they’re showing a tie, that’s probably good news for Obama. Each pollster uses slightly different regional definitions so these are not exact
Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are battling it out in three distinct regions of the Keystone State: the southeast corner, anchored by Philadelphia and its East Coast identity; the southwest corner, anchored by Pittsburgh and its Rust Belt roots; and the so-called “T”, the rural portion of the state that sits between and above the two major cities.
The Electoral Map: Pennsylvania Primary Predictions
In 2008, Rendell is supporting Hillary Clinton and Casey is backing Barack Obama, but we can expect a reverse outcome of the 2002 contest. Obama is likely to do well in and around Rendell’s base of Philly and Clinton will likely sweep Casey Country. The only difference is that Clinton will likely do better than Casey in the Philly exurbs and Lehigh Valley, cutting into Obama’s margins there and giving her the clear win statewide.
Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
And the late figures show a big boost for Obama. The eight counties most likely to favor Obama—Philadelphia, Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Dauphin (Harrisburg), Centre (State College), and the four suburban counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester—account for 65% of the new voters.
Pennsylvania News and Maps:
More Pennsylvania Links:
- CNN Primary Maps
- Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
- Cogitamus: Barack Obama Pennsylvania Field Office Map
- Politico: Pennsylvania Voter Registration Maps
- Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
- Cartophillia: Pennsylvania: Land of Cheesesteaks, Chocolate and Ketchup!
- Cogitamus: Visual Aids Pennsylvania Primary Delegate Margin Prediction Map