National Review: Why Trump Can Win Pennsylvania

2016 Presidential Campaign, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania

The National Review oulines how a Republican presidential candidate could win Pennsylvania for the first time in 25 years. The story is loaded with maps detailing Pennsylvania’s demographics and electoral history. A small sampling of what is available is featured below, so be sure to visit the National Review for more.

…despite increasing their voter-registration edge in the state by over 600,000 from 2000 to 2012, Democrats had only netted another hundred thousand participating voters in that stretch. Overall, the state had become redder in the west and bluer in the east.

Pennsylvania statewide by race: Statewide, Pennsylvania is pretty white, with just a handful of majority black/Hispanic municipalities:

There are pockets holding sizable Hispanic and black populations in the major metro areas, Lancaster, Reading, Allentown and Bethlehem, and a noticeable chunk in Monroe County:

The state of Pennsylvania has changed considerably over the last few decades, and provides a prime opportunity for Donald Trump — if, and only if, he changes some behaviors that will cost him votes in key areas. Given current trends — and presuming that the campaign makes an effort to expand beyond his core voters — I could see Trump winning all but Erie, Lackawanna, Centre, Allegheny, Montgomery, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties, and squeaking by with a 1 to 2 percent victory: