Indiana’s primary on May 6th is a pivotal primary providing Hillary Clinton a final chance to derail Barack Obama’s path to the nomination and offering Barack Obama an opportunity to clinch the nomination. If Obama beats Clinton in both Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th, then Clinton will be left without a reason to stay in the race. Clinton is favored to win Indiana as the demographics resemble Ohio and Pennsylvania, however Indiana is expected to be more competitive.
Bookmark this page, as this it will be updated as final results come in and new maps become available.
- Official State Results
- CNN Primary Maps
- New York Times: Indiana Primary Map
- Washington Post: Indiana Primary Map
FiveThirtyEight.com: Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split
Nice run down of how the delegates will likely be split based on polling, demographics and other factors.
- CD-1 (NW/Gary): Prediction: Clinton 50.4, Obama 49.6; 3-3 Delegate Split.
- CD-2 (NNW / South Bend): Prediction: Clinton 54.1, Obama 45.9; 3-3 Delegate Split.
- CD-3 (NE / Fort Wayne): Prediction: Clinton 50.8, Obama 49.2; 2-2 Delegate Split.
- CD-4 (Central / Lafayette): Prediction: Clinton 50.3, Obama 49.6; 2-2 Delegate Split.
- CD-5 (Central / Marion): Prediction: Obama 53.1, Clinton 46.9; 2-2 Delegate Split.
- CD-6 (East / Muncie): Prediction: Clinton 58.8, Obama 42.2; Clinton 3-2 Delegate Win.
- CD-7 (Indianapolis): Prediction: Obama 61.5, Clinton 38.5; Obama 4-2 Delegate Win.
- CD-8 (SE / Evansville): Prediction: Clinton 57.5, Obama 43.5; 3-3 Delegate Split.
- CD-9 (SW / Bloomington): Prediction: Clinton 57.1, Obama 43.9; 3-3 Delegate Split.
Race42008.com: Previewing Indiana
Plugging these numbers from OH and PA into IN, Obama’s best district will be the 7th, which he should win with about 58% of the vote. He should split the Fifth District, which is heavily Republican, and where he should get a boost from the Indianapolis suburbs. He should run about 50-50 in the First, but narrowly lose. This will be interesting to watch. Many have predicted that this will be a strong district for him, because of the high AA population. I have disagreed, because there is also a high white ethnic population. If he overperforms, we may be able to conclude that there is in fact some spillover effect from Chicago media.
After that, the 3rd, 4th, and 2d, all located in the North of the state, should provide a strong performance for him. He should come in below 40% in the 6th, 8th, and 9th, which are the more Southern portions of the state.
The county-by-county results are similar. He does his best in the middle of the state, where Hamilton county is by far his best county, followed closely by Marion (Indianapolis). Other areas of strength are Lake County (Gary), Monroe County (Bloomington) and Allen county (Ft. Wayne). The South is a mass of blue.
I’ve attached maps on both the Congressional and County-by-County basis. Again, if the results on Tuesday look like this, I will trumpet it on the front page. If not, you will never hear about this again. The prediction, by the way, from the model is a 57-43 drubbing by Clinton.
Indiana News and Maps: