The maps below show the fund raising edge that Barack Obama has over John McCain that certainly was a motivating factor in opting out of the public financing funds. Barack Obama appears to be raising more than John McCain everywhere, including Republican strongholds such as Texas and the South. McCain looks to only have a fund raising advantage in his home state of Arizona.

2008 Campaign Finance Maps from the New York Times

FiveThirtyEight.com Electoral Vote Prediction

Electoral-Vote.com Electoral Vote Prediction

Patchwork Nation consists of America’s 3,142 counties, divided into 11 community types on the basis of certain demographic characteristics, such as income level or racial composition.

Boom Towns - Eagle, CO

Midsize cities and smaller towns with well-balanced economies of affluence, education, and professional employment; growing ethnic diversity, some retired elderly with high incomes.

Military Bastions - Hopkinsville, KY

High levels of employment in military or related government employment; often adjacent to major military installations, private military contractors, or have a history of military-dependent economies; middle income, transient, younger populations, with some trade and service workers in the local economy.

Campus and Careers - Ann Arbor, MI

High percentage of the population between 18-34, few retirees or elderly; includes university/college towns and locations with high employment in education and educational services; high levels of formal education; religious diversity, secularism.

Minority Central - Baton Rouge, LA

Lower-income counties with large proportions of African-Americans and native Americans on Indian reservations; low population growth or steady population losses, high unemployment and poverty; low-end housing stock; African-American locales are concentrated within the Deep South.

Emptying Nests - Clermont, FL

Middle-income, retirement age; and baby-boom populations; presence of evangelical and mainline Protestants, fewer Catholics, stable but not booming economies.

Monied ‘Burbs - Los Alamos, NM

High-income counties, with high professional employment and formal education; high expenditures by consumers on new vehicles, luxury goods, property taxes, and charitable giving; midsize in terms of population and population density, primarily within metro areas; family age populations, low density housing; predominantly white, but with some Asian-American presence.

Evangelical Epicenters - Nixa, MO

Briskly growing small and midsize towns with family age populations; middle income with some affluent and poor; low incidence of mainline Protestant and Catholic churchgoers, higher incidence of evangelical adherents, particularly in the South and border states; Mormons in the West; some minority presence, chiefly blacks (in the South) and Latinos (in the West).

Service Worker Centers - Lincoln City, OR

Midsize cities and smaller towns with very high percentages employed in trade and service businesses but not manufacturing or agriculture; many new residents, growing Latino populations; more Catholics and fewer Evangelicals or mainline Protestants.

Immigration Nation - El Mirage, AZ

High percentages of Latinos and Asians; immigrants living in midsize to larger cities; moderately high levels of unemployment; Roman Catholic with sprinkling of religious diversity; lower income with moderate to high percentage in poverty.

Tractor Country - Sioux Center, IA

Predominantly white, smaller towns and more remote counties outside of metropolitan areas; low level of manufacturing employment, high levels of self-employment, employment in agriculture, as well as small-town retail and wholesale trade; Lutheran, Reformed, and mainline Protestant adherents predominate in the upper Midwest.

Here are a collection of maps highlighting how Obama won. These will no doubt be analyzed in great detail between now and the general election, with John McCain looking to take advantage of Obama’s geographic weaknesses that became apparent during the primary, such as Appalachia and the rural rust belt.

Where Candidates Found Support from the New York Times

Highlights
• Obama’s overall lead in the popular vote was nearly equal to his winning margin in Chicago
• Hillary Clinton dominated Appalachia, stretching from North Alabama to New York
• Obama won all nine states where African-Americans make up more than one sixth of the population
• Obama did well in the Northwest and the mountain West

click for full size

County by County Map from Meng Bomin

Clinton is red, Edwards is green, and Obama is blue

Democratic Primary Map from the New York Times

Popular Vote Calculations from Real Clear Politics

With the longest and most divisive Democratic primary since 1980, Democratic chances slimmer than the last prediction posted in November. The map below assumes Obama holds all the states Kerry won in 2004 except New Hampshire and picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado resulting both McCain and Obama winning 269 electoral votes. A tie would be decided by the House of Representatives should this scenario play out at the polls in November.

2008 Presidential Election Prediction - 11/25/2007

Before the candidates for each party have even been selected, PoliticalMaps.org is predicting the Democrats will win the 2008 Presidential Election by 40 electoral points. The Democratic candidate will win the Presidency by winning all the states John Kerry won in 2004, as well as winning Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico which voted for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election.
image above create using interactive map at www.270towin.com

Hillary Clinton has been touting these as evidence of her electability and was recently quoted as saying “I found some curious support for that position when one of the TV networks released an analysis done by — of all people — Karl Rove, saying that I was the stronger candidate. Somebody got a hold of his analysis and there it is.”

These are based on polling and come from a GOP strategist, so take them with a grain of salt. As always, the Electoral Map has some insightful commentary.

Senator Barack Obama appears to have clinched the Democratic presidential nomination with his 14 point win in the May 6th North Carolina primary and his narrow loss in Indiana.

Upcoming Primaries

June 2008
• June 1 - Puerto Rico
• June 3 - Montana, South Dakota

States won by each candidate:
• Barack Obama (28 not counting the Texas caucus or DC): Alaska , Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas (caucus), Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington D.C., Wisconsin, and Wyoming
• Hillary Clinton (20 including the Texas primary and unsanctioned Florida and Michigan): Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas (primary), and West Virginia

Democratic Primary Map from the New York Times

Delegate Count from the New York Times

Delegate Margin and county by county Map from Open Left

Campaign Fundraising Map from
Political Base

Dark blue represents the states where Hillary Clinton has received more campaign contributions than Barack Obama and vis versa.

Bookmark this page, as this page will be updated as final results come in and new maps become available.

North Carolina Results:

• Official State Results
• CNN Primary Maps
• New York Times: North Carolina Primary Map
• Washington Post: North Carolina Primary Map

New York Times: North Carolina Primary Map

Cogitamus: North Carolina Results

Five Thirty Eight: North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits

• CD-1 (Northeast / Albermarle): Prediction: Obama 68.1, Clinton 31.9; Obama 4-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-2 (East Central / Raleigh): Prediction: Obama 61.5, Clnton 38.5; Obama 4-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-3 (East / Cape Hatteras): Prediction: Obama 56.3, Clinton 43.7; 2-2 Delegate Split.
• CD-4 (Central / Research Triangle): Prediction: Obama 69.8, Clinton 30.2; Obama 6-3 Delegate Win.
• CD-5 (Northwest / Boone): Prediction: Clinton 55.9, Obama 44.1; Clinton 3-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-6 (Central / Asheboro): Prediction: Clinton 51.8, Obama 48.2; Clinton 3-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-7 (Southeast / Wilmington): Prediction: Obama 52.8, Clinton 47.2; 3-3 Delegate Split.
• CD-8 (South Central / Kannapolis): Prediction: Obama 60.7, Clinton 39.3; Obama 3-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-9 (Charlotte - Gastonia): Prediction: Obama 60.2, Clinton 39.8; Obama 4-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-10 (West / Hickory): Prediction: Clinton 55.6, Obama 44.4; Clinton 3-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-11 (West / Asheville): Prediction: Clinton 57.6, Obama 42.4; 3-3 Delegate Split.
  Prediction: Obama 70.6, Clinton 29.4; Obama 5-2 Delegate Win.
• CD 13 (North / Greensboro): Prediction: Obama 63.4, Clinton 36.6; Obama 4-3 Delegate Win.

race42008.com - North Carolina Democratic Primary Prediction

The bluest Hillary color means she is predicted to get 65%+, the greenest Obama color means he is predicted to get 65%+. The colors change shade in roughly 3% increments:

CNN: 2004 North Carolina Presidential Results by County

Bush v. Kerry

Bush Strength

Kerry Strength

Washington Post: North Carolina Primary Results, by County

Pennsylvania News and Maps:

• CNN Primary Maps
• New York Times: North Carolina Primary Map

Bookmark this page, as this it will be updated as final results come in and new maps become available.

Indiana Results:

• Official State Results
• CNN Primary Maps
• New York Times: Indiana Primary Map
• Washington Post: Indiana Primary Map

New York Times: Indiana Primary Map

FiveThirtyEight.com: Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split

Nice run down of how the delegates will likely be split based on polling, demographics and other factors.

• CD-1 (NW/Gary): Prediction: Clinton 50.4, Obama 49.6; 3-3 Delegate Split.
• CD-2 (NNW / South Bend): Prediction: Clinton 54.1, Obama 45.9; 3-3 Delegate Split.
• CD-3 (NE / Fort Wayne): Prediction: Clinton 50.8, Obama 49.2; 2-2 Delegate Split.
• CD-4 (Central / Lafayette): Prediction: Clinton 50.3, Obama 49.6; 2-2 Delegate Split.
• CD-5 (Central / Marion): Prediction: Obama 53.1, Clinton 46.9; 2-2 Delegate Split.
• CD-6 (East / Muncie): Prediction: Clinton 58.8, Obama 42.2; Clinton 3-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-7 (Indianapolis): Prediction: Obama 61.5, Clinton 38.5; Obama 4-2 Delegate Win.
• CD-8 (SE / Evansville): Prediction: Clinton 57.5, Obama 43.5; 3-3 Delegate Split.
• CD-9 (SW / Bloomington): Prediction: Clinton 57.1, Obama 43.9; 3-3 Delegate Split.

Race42008.com: Previewing Indiana
Plugging these numbers from OH and PA into IN, Obama’s best district will be the 7th, which he should win with about 58% of the vote. He should split the Fifth District, which is heavily Republican, and where he should get a boost from the Indianapolis suburbs. He should run about 50-50 in the First, but narrowly lose. This will be interesting to watch. Many have predicted that this will be a strong district for him, because of the high AA population. I have disagreed, because there is also a high white ethnic population. If he overperforms, we may be able to conclude that there is in fact some spillover effect from Chicago media.

After that, the 3rd, 4th, and 2d, all located in the North of the state, should provide a strong performance for him. He should come in below 40% in the 6th, 8th, and 9th, which are the more Southern portions of the state.

The county-by-county results are similar. He does his best in the middle of the state, where Hamilton county is by far his best county, followed closely by Marion (Indianapolis). Other areas of strength are Lake County (Gary), Monroe County (Bloomington) and Allen county (Ft. Wayne). The South is a mass of blue.

I’ve attached maps on both the Congressional and County-by-County basis. Again, if the results on Tuesday look like this, I will trumpet it on the front page. If not, you will never hear about this again. The prediction, by the way, from the model is a 57-43 drubbing by Clinton.

Washington Post: Indiana Primary Results, by County

Indiana News and Maps:

• CNN Primary Maps
• New York Times: Indiana Primary Map

Next to vote:
- May 3rd: Guam (9 delegates)
- May 6th: North Carolina (134 delegates) and Indiana (83 delegates)

States won by each candidate:
• Barack Obama: Alaska , Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas (caucus), Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington D.C., Wisconsin, and Wyoming
• Hillary Clinton: Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Texas (primary)

New York Times Democratic Primary Map

Delegate Count from the New York Times

County by County Results Map from Open Left

Delegate Margin Map from Open Left

Campaign Finance Map from Political Base

Dark blue represents the states where Hillary Clinton has received more campaign contributions than Barack Obama and vis versa.

Google: Decision 2008

Upcoming Primaries

May 2008
• May 6 - Indiana, North Carolina
• May 13 - West Virginia
• May20 - Kentucky, Oregon

June 2008
• June 1 - Puerto Rico
• June 3 - Montana, South Dakota

Official Results - electionreturns.state.pa.us

Washington Post: Pennsylvania Primary Results, by County

Cogitamus: 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Results Map

Open Left: Updated Primary Results Maps

New York Times: Pennsylvania Primary Map



Pennsylvania at a Glance

538: Pennsylvania Scorecard
Two things you should not pay attention to without proper context:
(1) Leaked exit polls
(2) Very early returns

you can pay a little more attention to the early returns by using the scorecard below, which lists the regional results from among five pollsters that provided these breakdowns, plus our regression-based estimate. For example, the polls say to expect about a 10-point margin for Clinton in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) — if there are a substantial number of reutrns in from Allegheny and they’re showing a tie, that’s probably good news for Obama. Each pollster uses slightly different regional definitions so these are not exact

Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are battling it out in three distinct regions of the Keystone State: the southeast corner, anchored by Philadelphia and its East Coast identity; the southwest corner, anchored by Pittsburgh and its Rust Belt roots; and the so-called “T”, the rural portion of the state that sits between and above the two major cities.

The Electoral Map: Pennsylvania Primary Predictions
In 2008, Rendell is supporting Hillary Clinton and Casey is backing Barack Obama, but we can expect a reverse outcome of the 2002 contest. Obama is likely to do well in and around Rendell’s base of Philly and Clinton will likely sweep Casey Country. The only difference is that Clinton will likely do better than Casey in the Philly exurbs and Lehigh Valley, cutting into Obama’s margins there and giving her the clear win statewide.

Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
And the late figures show a big boost for Obama. The eight counties most likely to favor Obama—Philadelphia, Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Dauphin (Harrisburg), Centre (State College), and the four suburban counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester—account for 65% of the new voters.

Pennsylvania News and Maps:

More Pennsylvania Links:

• CNN Primary Maps
• Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
• Cogitamus: Barack Obama Pennsylvania Field Office Map
• Politico: Pennsylvania Voter Registration Maps
• Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
• Cartophillia: Pennsylvania: Land of Cheesesteaks, Chocolate and Ketchup!
• Cogitamus: Visual Aids Pennsylvania Primary Delegate Margin Prediction Map

• CNN
• CBS
• ABC

Pollster.com has a good summary of how exit polls work.

With Obama as the nominee, the electoral college at the moment is Obama 260 to McCain 254 with 24 ties. With Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it is Clinton 289 to McCain 239 with 10 ties. Thus for the moment, her argument that she is more electable is true. Her strength is that she wins Florida and Ohio although he offsets this by winning Michigan and Iowa, which she loses. Also, he puts Colorado and North Carolina in play. If Obama were to win Colorado and McCain were to win North Carolina, they would each have 269 electoral votes and the new House would choose the President.

Clinton v. McCain

Obama v. McCain

• 358: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
• New York Times: Obama v. Clinton county decision tree based on demographics
• Electoral Vote: 2008 Electoral Map based on recent polling: Obama v. McCain | Clinton v. McCain
• NPR: Pennsylvania Last Chance for Clinton to Make Case
• Political Base: Obama Takes Lead In Indiana For First Time, Narrows Clinton’s Lead In PA
• Cogitamus: Pennsylvania Change in Income Growth, Clinton v. Bush
• Atlantic: 35,00 come out for Obama in Philly
• National Dem Trends, Newsweek Poll
• Pollster: Comparing Pollsters in Pennsylvania
• Pollster: Another Update on PA by Race, Gender and Education

The site uses current state level polling and past voting trends to predict the election outcome for each state and is updated as the political climate shifts. It has taken a unique approach to grouping states into regions that have similar demographics and voting paterns.

• FiveThirtyEight.com

• Democratic Primary Map
• Republican Primary Map

• US News: In Terms of Geography, Obama Appeals to Academics and Clinton Appeals to Jacksonians
• The Electoral Map: Mapping Strategies - How Candidates Use Maps to Imply Electability
• The Huffington Post: Throw Out the Rove-era Election Map For November
• Tim Russert / Today Show: Predicting the Electoral Map
• First Read / MSNBC: First Thoughts, Two Different Maps

Since neither candidate appears able to win enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination, the Democratic nominee will likely be decided by the Democratic party’s superdelegates and both candidates have been trying to make the case that they are the person best able to defeat the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

States won by each candidate:
• Barack Obama: Alaska , Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas (caucus), Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington D.C., Wisconsin, and Wyoming
• Hillary Clinton: Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Texas (primary)

New York Times Democratic Primary Map

Delegate Count from the New York Times

Delegate Margin Map from Open Left

Campaign Finance Map from Political Base

Dark blue represents the states where Hillary Clinton has received more campaign contributions than Barack Obama and vis versa.

Google: Decision 2008

Upcoming Primaries

April 2008
• April 22 - Pennsylvania

May 2008
• May 6 - Indiana, North Carolina
• May 13 - West Virginia
• May20 - Kentucky, Oregon

June 2008
• June 1 - Puerto Rico
• June 3 - Montana, South Dakota

John McCain started the Republican primary as the front runner, but began to drop in the polls before the first vote had been cast. McCain won the New Hampshire primary, the second state to vote in the presidential campaign, and has been racking up delegates since then.

The Republicans have now selected their nominee and can begin to prepare for the general election in November, while the Democratic race continues with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battling for the delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Republican Primary Map from the New York Times