The maps below are from 11:30 AM EST, but already show that there are a lot of voting issues accross the country. Click on a map to go to the most recent version on Our Vote Live.org

To roam the rural reaches of western Pennsylvania, through largely white working-class counties, is to understand the breadth of the challenge facing the two presidential candidates. But this economically ravaged region, once so solidly Democratic, poses a particular hurdle for Senator Obama.

• Article:  Rural Swath of Big State Tests Obama
• Pennsylvania Map and Graphic

• Swing State Review: Pennsylvania

what McCain must do to flip Pennsylvania from blue to red. There are four areas he should focus on:

(1) Metropolitan Philadelphia. George W. Bush’s numbers in metro Philly were not great in 2004. Statewide, Bush’s vote share ticked up 2 points between 2000 and 2004, from 46.4 to 48.4. In the suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia, it barely inched up, from 46.7% to 47.0%. If McCain can improve on Bush’s share in the suburban counties, he will be better positioned to win the state. He would not have to do much better – a shift of just 2 points in the suburban counties would close more than a third of Bush’s statewide deficit. This is not an impossible feat. Obama’s campaign should not presume that metro Philly is a lock, at least not in the numbers he will need. Republicans who have won statewide offices have greatly outperformed Bush here, so McCain could improve on Bush.

(2) The Lehigh Valley. This is in Lehigh, Northampton, and Carbon counties. Formerly a center of American manufacturing, the economy has recently been invigorated by the tech and service industries. With this revitalization has come an increase in population. Bush was basically stagnant in this region between 2000 and 2004. He lost all three counties by slim margins in 2000. In 2004, he won Carbon County barely, and ticked up a bit in the more populous Lehigh and Northampton Counties, still losing both. This is an area McCain cannot afford to ignore: Republicans who have won close statewide races in recent years have won the Lehigh Valley.

(3) York and Lancaster Counties. York and Lancaster are in the southeast – in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. Situated just east of the Appalachian Mountains, these counties have some of the most productive farmland in the state, though this does not account for their political importance. They sit between Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Washington, and Baltimore – and their populations have been growing as people willing to commute look for new places to settle. Like most “exurbs” nationwide, Bush did exceedingly well here, winning more than 3 out of 5 voters in both counties in 2004. McCain will have to match that. A strong performance here is already built into a Republican loss. So, he cannot afford to underperform here.

(4) The West. Culturally conservative western Pennsylvania has been trending Republican in recent years. For a long while, their ties to American industry induced them to vote Democratic, even as the Party of Jackson moved to the left on cultural issues. With the decline of industry, the area’s allegiance to the Democratic Party has weakened. Meanwhile, the region is still largely pro-life and pro-gun, which has given the GOP an opening. In fact, George W. Bush did better in the five outer counties of metropolitan Pittsburgh than any Republican since 1972.

Official Results – electionreturns.state.pa.us

Washington Post: Pennsylvania Primary Results, by County

Cogitamus: 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Results Map

Open Left: Updated Primary Results Maps

New York Times: Pennsylvania Primary Map



Pennsylvania at a Glance

538: Pennsylvania Scorecard
Two things you should not pay attention to without proper context:
(1) Leaked exit polls
(2) Very early returns

you can pay a little more attention to the early returns by using the scorecard below, which lists the regional results from among five pollsters that provided these breakdowns, plus our regression-based estimate. For example, the polls say to expect about a 10-point margin for Clinton in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) — if there are a substantial number of reutrns in from Allegheny and they’re showing a tie, that’s probably good news for Obama. Each pollster uses slightly different regional definitions so these are not exact

Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are battling it out in three distinct regions of the Keystone State: the southeast corner, anchored by Philadelphia and its East Coast identity; the southwest corner, anchored by Pittsburgh and its Rust Belt roots; and the so-called “T”, the rural portion of the state that sits between and above the two major cities.

The Electoral Map: Pennsylvania Primary Predictions
In 2008, Rendell is supporting Hillary Clinton and Casey is backing Barack Obama, but we can expect a reverse outcome of the 2002 contest. Obama is likely to do well in and around Rendell’s base of Philly and Clinton will likely sweep Casey Country. The only difference is that Clinton will likely do better than Casey in the Philly exurbs and Lehigh Valley, cutting into Obama’s margins there and giving her the clear win statewide.

Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
And the late figures show a big boost for Obama. The eight counties most likely to favor Obama—Philadelphia, Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Dauphin (Harrisburg), Centre (State College), and the four suburban counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester—account for 65% of the new voters.

Pennsylvania News and Maps:

More Pennsylvania Links:

• CNN Primary Maps
• Washington Post: Pennsylvania Political Geography
• Cogitamus: Barack Obama Pennsylvania Field Office Map
• Politico: Pennsylvania Voter Registration Maps
• Cogitamus: More Pennsylvania Registration Maps
• Cartophillia: Pennsylvania: Land of Cheesesteaks, Chocolate and Ketchup!
• Cogitamus: Visual Aids Pennsylvania Primary Delegate Margin Prediction Map

• CNN
• CBS
• ABC

Pollster.com has a good summary of how exit polls work.

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state colors unrelated to political leanings of senators or state