538: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New Mexico

2016, 2016 Presidential Campaign, Donald Trump, Electoral College, Gary Johnson, Hillary Clinton, New Mexico

FiveThirtyEight.com shares an electoral map outcome where no presidential candidate receives the required 270 electoral votes needed to win.

There was one poll that caught our eye, though, and it was from New Mexico. The survey, from Research & Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, showed a competitive three-way matchup, with Clinton at 35 percent, Trump at 31 percent, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson at 24 percent. Because New Mexico hasn’t been polled much, the survey had a fair amount of influence on our forecast, reducing Clinton’s chances of winning New Mexico to 82 percent from 85 percent in the polls-only model.

Most of the time, Trump would be the beneficiary of a Clinton loss in New Mexico. But the model also assigns Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, an outside chance — 2 or 3 percent — of winning the state. That could lead to an Electoral College deadlock that looks like this:


In this map, via 270towin.com, Clinton has 267 electoral votes, Trump has 266, and Johnson has New Mexico’s five. With no candidate possessing an Electoral College majority, the election would go to the House of Representatives, with Clinton, Trump and Johnson all eligible to receive votes.