2008 Prediction Map
May 22nd, 2008Note: This page is only sporadically updated. Please check the homepage or the news page for more recent predictions
2008 Presidential Election Prediction - 5/22/2008
With the longest and most divisive Democratic primary since 1980, Democratic chances slimmer than the last prediction posted in November. The map below assumes Obama holds all the states Kerry won in 2004 except New Hampshire and picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado resulting both McCain and Obama winning 269 electoral votes. A tie would be decided by the House of Representatives should this scenario play out at the polls in November.
2008 Presidential Election Prediction - 11/25/2007
Before the candidates for each party have even been selected, PoliticalMaps.org is predicting the Democrats will win the 2008 Presidential Election by 40 electoral points. The Democratic candidate will win the Presidency by winning all the states John Kerry won in 2004, as well as winning Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico which voted for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election.
image above create using interactive map at www.270towin.com
I did not see any mention of Puerto Rico delegates, Republicans and Democrats? Puerto Rico will provide a lot of delegates for GOP and Democrats and they count for these primaries! Where is Puerto ico in the MAPS?
Mike, that’s because this map, as a general election prediction, has nothing to do with the primaries. Puerto Rico does not have ANY electors in the electoral college.
seems pretty biased to me….i really dont think ohio will go democrat….and i think there is some adding errors cuz that puts u at 269 to 269?….good job? lol
Quenton - The prediction that Ohio would go Democratic was made back in November when it seemed inevitable that Clinton would be the nominee with the backing of the Ohio governor.
the math is correct though, as a 269 - 269 tie is possible if the 538 electors are split evenly, as the new map above shows
Senator Obama )or Clinton) better hope against a tie. The rules become a single vote for each state in the House of Representatives. Assuming the House Representatives follow the pattern of their constituents, the Republican candidate wins the highest number of states.
The House is controlled by the Democrats and I would assume that they would vote for their party’s nominee, not necessarily the winner of the county.
the democratic chances are slimmer now thanks to the endless primary and they can only hope to beat McCain if voters understand that he will continue many of Bush’s worst policies.
McCain and Bush.com
I think based on the past (and the present) that Ohio will go Dem and Michigan, even thogh it “looks” Republican will come back tothe Dem column (and neither will be super close - more like 52-48). One joker to watch is in the south, especially places like Mississippi where 37% of the electorate is black. Assuming htat Obama racks up about 90-95% of that ggroup, he only needs 25% of the white vote (primarily form young and better educated) to take a state that hasn’t voted Dem since 1956.
Obama should win in a land-slide, I think this May ‘08 map is quite incorrect. McCain represents little change for the United States, as he has changed himself from an independent Republican to a Bush-clone. If America chooses McCain, we will only have ourselves to blame for another Bush-like term. If Obama wins, we can see if his speeches were just empty rhetoric or had more substance than even his followers could have imagined.
I am quite upset that so much time is spent on only two candidates when there are several in this race. Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente have my vote because they embody values that the un-dynamic duo clearly lack. Bob Barr, Chuck Baldwin, and Ralph Nader also could chip away votes from the very paltry McCain campaign, losing electoral votes you believe he will get. This race is more interesting than the binary treatment the media give it.