As the campaign for president enters the final three weeks, Barack Obama seems to have an insurmountable lead over John McCain. The electoral map looks so favorable to Obama that Indiana, North Carolina and even North Dakota have listed as toss ups.
There are still a few factors that can change the course of the race in John McCain’s favor:
- Final Debate: There is one remaining debate, which offers McCain a final opportunity to change the course of the race. The debate will be focused on the economy, which has not been a strong point for McCain.
- An “October Surprise”: Anything that takes the focus off of the economy would likely benefit McCain, particularly anything that puts the focus on national security where McCain is still viewed as the stronger leader. past “October Surprises”: wikipedia
- The “Bradley Effect”: The “Bradley Effect” is a theory used to explain the discrepancy between pre-election polls and the final vote in elections where a black candidate in the leads in polls, but ultimately loses to a white candidate. Nate Silver argues it is no longer relevant, but Sean Oxendine disagrees. more info: Wikipedia | CNN
- Voter Turn Out: Elections are won with votes not polls. Some of Obama’s strongest support comes from younger voters and it is uncertain that they will turn out to vote any more than in prior elections. Will Obama’s supporters actually show up?
- FiveThirtyEight.com :Obama 361, McCain 177
- Electoral-Vote.com : Obama 357, McCain 181
- Princeton Election Consortium : Obama 354, McCain 184
- Real Clear Politics : Obama 313, McCain 158, Toss Ups 79 | No Toss Ups: Obama 364, McCain 174
- Pollster.com : Obama 320, McCain 155, Toss Ups 63
- Karl Rove : Obama 313, McCain 163, Toss Ups 102
- CNN : Obama 264, McCain 174, Toss Ups 100
- Marc Ambinder :Obama 264, McCain 173, Toss Ups 101